THE PROBLEM: In an era of increasing water scarcity and unpredictable weather patterns, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) needs improved data that reflects real-time weather conditions and forecasts to more efficiently manage the 400-plus dams it operates across the country. The challenge is exacerbated by growing competition for limited water resources, financial constraints for new dam construction, and increasing complex weather patterns. 

THE SOLUTION: The U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory has pioneered Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO), a revolutionary water management strategy that harnesses cutting-edge weather and streamflow forecasts to optimize reservoir efficiency. Instead of maintaining a fixed water level, FIRO introduces a flexible “FIRO space” in a reservoir, that allows operators to adjust water levels based on forecasted conditions — retaining more water for supply when forecasts show dry conditions and releasing more water before a large storm. FIRO boosts water supply reliability, enhances flood risk management, improves environmental flow management, increases infrastructure efficiency, and adapts better to weather extremes. 

THE TECH TRANSFER MECHANISM: The FIRO team employed innovative means to bridge research and operational implementation. They represent a unique collaboration among federal agencies (USACE, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation), academic institutions, and local water agencies. Once Cooperative Research and Development Agreements (CRADA) were signed and pilots were conducted, USACE districts began incorporating FIRO principles into official water control manuals, codifying the new approach. Along the path to implementation, the FIRO team conducted significant research, screening, testing, and updating to build stakeholder confidence and show real-world impact. 

THE IMPACT: USACE is now evaluating FIRO’s applicability for its more than 400 dams. Some systems, like the 14-dam system in Oregon’s Willamette Valley, are exploring FIRO for complex, multi-reservoir operations. In Northern California, FIRO implementation at Lake Mendocino and Lake Sonoma produced impressive water conservation results valued at $29 million in 2024 for 58,000 homes. In Southern California, FIRO implementation at Prado Dam conserved $6.1 million worth of water for 12,200 homes in 2024. These successes showcase the technology’s ability to adapt to different types of dams and climates. FIRO represents a significant advancement that optimizes the balance between flood control, water supply, and environmental needs, addressing the complex challenges of modern water management.