With Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) funding, the Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) has developed a new probabilistic multi-model subseasonal forecasting system for U.S. temperatures and 100 mph winds. Innovations include extreme event probabilities, ensemble clustering, 2-step calibration process, real-time verification, and a dynamic user interface.
1. There is a great need for reliable subseasonal forecasts in the energy and financial sectors, particularly for extreme events.
2. Communication of forecast uncertainty and real-time verification of forecasts helps overcome skepticism of end users about forecast accuracy
3. A "forecast window of opportunity” approach is useful to identify situations with high versus low predictability.
About the Speaker: Judith Curry is President and co-founder of CFAN. Following an influential career in academic research and administration, Curry founded CFAN to translate cutting-edge weather and climate research into forecast products that support the mitigation of weather and climate risk for public and private sector decision makers.